Summary ¹12 2011 ã.
Baranov A.O., Gilmundinov V.M., Pavlov V.N., Tagaeva T.O., Novosibirsk
Ershov Yu.S., Novosibirsk
What is in Store for Russia in the Future, or, Whether or not Long-Term Forecasts are to be Believed?
The paper examines some properties of the modern market model of Russian economy that have significant effects on it economic dynamics now and in the long term – mainly, some features of interaction with the outsider world and the specific character of the monetary system. The critical analysis of some aspects of modern economic forecasting is given.
Long-term forecasts, errors of forecasting, inter-country and interregional differences, integration into the world economy, monetary system, oil factor, Okun’s law
Klistorin V.I., Novosibirsk
About Accuracy and Reliability of Forecasts
The paper considers what factors and conditions determine accuracy and reliability of the socio-economic forecasts as well as the approaches which could make such forecasts more accurate and reliable for both performer and consumer of this information.
Forecast, accuracy, reliability, assessments, state, governmental departments, independent researches, consensus-forecast, combined forecast
Melnikova L.V., Novosibirsk
Russian Economic Growth Prospects in Actual Long-Term Forecasts
The paper presents the survey and comparative analysis of actual mid-term and long-term forecasts of Russian economic development produced in Russian and foreign analytic agencies. It considers the process of forming the strategic planning system in Russia. Some problems of long-term forecasting are stressed, such as the influence of short-term tendencies and the use of adequate modeling tools.
Long-term forecasting, strategic planning system, short-term tendencies, sectoral and spatial forecasting, financial crisis
Bardazzi R., Grassini M., Italia
The European Union in the Crisis: What Next?
In this article main characteristics of European economic slowdown and prospects for the near future are analysed. The new framework for economic governance recently adopted by the European Council is described. Finally the envisaged impact of EU future developments on neighbouring countries such as Russia is presented.
The article is printed with some abridgements.
Economic crises, European Union
Suslov N.I., Novosibirsk
UN Project «The Future of the World Economy»: What Has Not Come to Be?
The paper presented is devoted to ex post analysis of long run forecasts based on the input–output models. The basic scenarios of the world economy development constructed within the famous UN project «The Future of the World Economy» in 70th years of the last century are considered. The idea that the main reason for the forecast deviation from the actual economic development by the world regions was underestimation of institutional threats in the countries of Africa, Latin America, and Eastern Europe as well as in the Soviet Union is suggested. Another reason was that the authors did not realize the actual hardness of the energy crises consequence for the world economy. The main conclusion from the paper discussion is that experts making forecasts are able better to see future development possibilities than threats.
Forecasting, input–output models, world regions, energy crisis, institutional threats
Gluschenko K.P., Novosibirsk
If We Live that Long …
The paper discusses long-term projections of the world economy developed by Goldman Sachs.
Goldman Sachs, projection, GDP, Russia, BRIC, China
Toichkina V.P., Apatity
The first stage of realization of the state demographic policy regarding population reproduction: the Murmansk region – evaluation and innovative solution of problems
The article evaluates social efficiency of realization of the first stage (2001-2010) of the state demographic policy in the Murmansk region in comparison to the average results achieved in RF using the indicators of population reproduction sustainability. Tools for solving problems of population reproduction at the local level are proposed; solving these problems influences directly positive change of demographic situation of both regions and the country as a whole.
Demographic policy, indicators of population reproduction sustainability, territorial public self-government
Kuleshov V.V., Novosibirsk
They Were Poor but Nobody Realized This Fact…
About Perspectives of Socio-Economic Development in Siberia
To make the level of incomes, infrastructure and life-support systems in Siberia equal to those in the western regions of Russia, it is necessary to adopt a packet of projects which doesn’t relate to the development of natural resources in East- and West Siberia, and the costs of which may be regarded as equal to the force-majeure projects costs for the European part of Russia.
Level of incomes, force-majeure projects, regional quality of life, science, education, Skolkovo, strategic territorial reserves in Russia
The Autumn of Biotechnological Innovations (on Materials of the ECO Journal Roundtable)
A New Step in the Development of Koltsovo Science City
The issues of building a pharmaceutical cluster on the base of the bio-techopark were discussed at the round table with Major for Koltsovo Science City Mr. Krasnikov, his Deputy Mrs. Gumerova and top managers of the research-and production enterprises.
Bio-techopark, «Vector» Company, bio-technologies, business incubator, Koltsovo Science City, innovation business
Gorlenko O.V., Bryansk
Russian Advertising: Manipulating Customers
The article deals with the link between advertising and mentality and the problem of unreliable advertisements connected with manipulating customer’s mind. The main methods of misleading customers with examples of Russian advertisements are summarized, being aware of those will help to resist manipulations.
Àdvertising, manipulating, unreliable advertising
Ryumkin A.I., Tomsk
Cluster as a Variant to Modernize Natural Resource Use
The paper analyzes and proposes a cluster for natural resource use which includes production and innovation centers as a variant of innovation development. Such cluster is suggested to be built in the area of Tom River since there is the Tomsk research and educational complex which shows its unique advantage being located in the provinces of the largest energy areas such as West–Siberian oil-and-gas area and Kuznetsk coal one. We offer both forced measures and economic incentives to be applied.
Cluster, natural resource use, innovation development
Tomashevich I.I., Rubtcovsk
Stages of Development of Small Industrial Enterprises
The article presents a top managers point of view on the development and growth stages of a once small business- based manufacturing plant. The author defines key problems aristing during a growth period and offers his own solutions to them.
Small entrepreneurship, manufacturing process, small business units